The confetti hasn't even settled on Super Bowl XLIX, but already the vast majority of NFL teams are looking forward to 2015. Scouts and front office personnel are in Mobile, Alabama, as we speak for this weekend's Senior Bowl.
However, between scouting season and the draft there's yet another way for NFL teams to improve themselves for the upcoming season.
Even if it can be an expensive one.
On March 10, free agency opens across the NFL, an opportunity for clubs to add veteran players, from reserves to superstars.
This year's crop is especially loaded in the latter regard. In fact, some have gone so far as to label the free-agent class of 2015 the best ever.
That may be a bit hyperbolic, but there's no denying that there's some serious talent about to hit the open market, including the NFL's reigning rushing champion and sack king.
With that in mind, here's a rundown of the NFL's top 10 free agents in 2015.
10. Mark Sanchez
OK, let's get this out of the way right off the bat.
Before anyone scuttles off to the comments section to call me an ignorant so-and-so for including Mark Sanchez in this list, bear with me for a second.
I'm not about to sit here and say Sanchez is the 10th-best player available in free agency this year. After all, we are talking about the player who seared this image onto the brains of NFL fans everywhere.
However, while Sanchez may not be a great player (or even an especially good one), he is a quarterback. That sends his value on the open market through the roof.
Sanchez is also coming off arguably the best season of his six-year career. Making eight starts for the Philadelphia Eagles in place of Nick Foles, Sanchez set career bests in completion percentage (64.1) and passer rating (88.4).
Granted, Sanchez still had too many turnovers (14), but the 28-year-old went a long way toward reviving his NFL career in Chip Kelly's offense a year ago.
It's all about the market with Sanchez. There's no shortage of NFL teams without a franchise quarterback.
This isn't to say Sanchez is that guy, but for teams from Buffalo to Cleveland, he at least represents an upgrade at the position.
It may seem unfathomable, but it wouldn't be that surprising to see Sanchez land a three-year deal that pays in excess of $8 million a season.
It's good to be a quarterback—even one who butt-fumbles.
9. Jason Pierre-Paul
In 2011, Jason Pierre-Paul of the New York Giants put up J.J. Watt numbers before J.J. Watt.
That year, Pierre-Paul tallied 86 tackles (an obscene number for a defensive end) and 16.5 sacks. The sky appeared to be the limit for the 25-year-old.
In short, it didn't look like Pierre-Paul would ever see free agency.
Since then, however, Pierre-Paul has battled injuries over two seasons and part of a third. Down the stretch in 2014 though, we started to see glimpses of his true self.
Nine of Pierre-Paul's 12.5 sacks in 2014 came over the last five weeks of the season. He ended the year with 77 tackles (once again, a gonzo number for an end).
Now, with Pierre-Paul set to hit the open market, the five-year veteran told Stephen Lorenzo of the New York Daily News that he isn't sure what the future holds (besides buckets of money):
Who knows if I’m going to be in a Giant uniform? Like I say now, the numbers are there, I had a great season, everybody sees it. There’s really nothing else to say, just negotiations, and (they’re) coming.I think I’m worth a lot of money. What do you think?
It's a deep crop at defensive end, featuring Pro Bowlers like Greg Hardy and lower-priced upside options such as Derrick Morgan and Brandon Graham.
However, none of those options have Pierre-Paul's ceiling. Defensive ends capable of playing both the run and pass at his level (when healthy) just don't grow on trees.
So you can bet plenty of teams will be shaking this one.
8. Julius Thomas
There are two types of teams in today's NFL: those who have an athletic, field-stretching tight end—and those who want one.
Well, that latter group has a couple of options in free agency this year, chief among them Julius Thomas of the Denver Broncos.
Despite battling an ankle injury over the second half of the 2014 season, Thomas still found the end zone 12 times for a second straight year. Only Jimmy Graham of the New Orleans Saints has more touchdowns among tight ends over that span.
As Mike Chiari of Bleacher Report wrote recently, colleague Jason Cole believes that the Broncos, who face a number of difficult roster decisions in the weeks to come, will have little choice but to let the 26-year-old hit the open market.
And if that's the case, it's going to be a free-for-all, with Bleacher Report's Chris Simms mentioning the New England Patriots, Atlanta Falcons, Green Bay Packers and Oakland Raiders as teams that could have significant interest in the four-year veteran.
Not bad for a player who had one catch over his first two NFL seasons.
7. DeMarco Murray
In many respects, it may seem strange that Dallas Cowboys running back DeMarco Murray is "only" seventh on this list of free agents.
After all, Murray paced the NFL with 1,845 rushing yards in 2015. Add in his 416 receiving yards, and that number balloons to over 2,200 yards. He also averaged a robust 4.7 yards per carry and found the end zone 13 times.
So what's the problem?
Well, Murray carried the ball well over 400 times this season when the playoffs are factored in. As Tristan Cockroft of ESPN reported back in 2011, the history of running backs who have exceeded 370 carries in a season does not bode well for Murray's future, either in the short- or long-term.
Murray, for his part, told ESPN's Todd Archer he'd like to return to Dallas, but he also qualified that there's no guarantee that's going to happen:
Obviously I love playing with these guys, love playing for Jerry, love playing for Jason [Garrett]. He’s a helluva coach, a helluva guy. The things I’ve learned from him and [Jason Witten] in the four years I’ve been here, I’m very gracious and appreciative of it. If the chips fall that way, I’m excited and would love to come back. I don’t know what’s going to happen, so we’ll see.Those guys know how I am as a person and I understand that business aspect. I don’t get butt-hurt. I don’t get my feelings hurt. I believe in myself and what I’m capable of doing and whoever it is I’m playing for next year, I know I’m going to make a huge impact.
However, the Cowboys may be hard-pressed to find the money under the cap to keep Murray in the fold.
If the 26-year-old does hit the open market, it's going to be interesting to see what Murray's 2014 workload and the recent devaluation of the running back position in the NFL will do to the bids for Murray's services.
6. Mike Iupati
It's a pretty weak crop of free-agent talent on the offensive line. But that's not overly surprising—NFL teams are loathe to let any offensive lineman worth his salt ever hit the open market to begin with.
In fact, Bleacher Report's own Bryan Knowles believes that despite the San Francisco 49ers' salary-cap issues, the team needs to do what it can to retain the services of guard Mike Iupati.
Within reason, anyway:
The 49ers should immediately turn around and use that money to re-sign Mike Iupati. If the 49ers are going back to the power-running game that was so successful from 2011 through 2013, Iupati is a must-have part. No, he’s not a good pass-protector, and he never will be, but there are few run-blocking guards in football.They shouldn’t break the bank for Iupati, however. If he wants to be paid like Jahri Evans or Logan Mankins, the two highest-paid guards in football, the 49ers should be prepared to walk away and go with the rookie Brandon Thomas. Iupati deserves a raise, but to the sort of money that Evan Mathis or Louis Vasquez is making. That pushes Iupati to somewhere around $4 to 6 million a year from the $3 million he was making on his current contract. If he wants much more than that, the 49ers should walk away.
The problem there (much like with Sanchez) is the market.
A shallow pool of available talent could drive up Iupati's asking price. There are plenty of teams with holes to fill up front, and Iupati is a three-time Pro Bowler who ranked fourth among all guards in run blocking in 2014, according to Pro Football Focus.
Yes, Iupati's ranking in pass protection (39th) isn't nearly as robust, but even that's good for second among guards in the NFC West.
In other words, there are plenty of teams for whom 39th would be a step in the right direction.
5. Randall Cobb
Many might consider Randall Cobb's ranking on this list as an indictment of the 24-year-old.
Actually, it has little to do with Cobb himself, and more to do with a group of wide receivers set to hit a free-agent pool so deep thatJeremy Maclin of the Philadelphia Eagles didn't make the top 10 at all.
Cobb, who had 91 receptions for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns in 2014, admitted to Lori Nickel of the Milwaukee Journal-Sentinel that he isn't sure if he'll be returning to the Green Bay Packers in 2015.
"I haven't signed on the dotted line yet," Cobb said. "So I can't be for certain on anything. I can only take it day by day. And that's pretty much it."
There are reasons for that uncertainty. Ted Thompson's hardly been known for doling out big free-agent contracts in the past, and the Packers are already paying big money to batterymate Jordy Nelson.
However, as Grantland's Bill Barnwell pointed out, if Cobb does make it to free agency, the line to talk to him is going to stretch around the proverbial block:
What makes Cobb so interesting, even beyond his production in Green Bay, is his youth. He won’t turn 25 until August, making him one of the youngest — if not the youngest — unrestricted free agents in NFL history. Cobb is nearly a year younger than T.Y. Hilton and four months younger than Alshon Jeffery, both of whom are a year away from free agency. He plays in a pass-happy era, but Cobb just finished one of the best age-24 seasons in league history, catching 91 passes for 1,287 yards and 12 touchdowns.
Come to think of it, Cobb may well be getting low-balled a little on this list.
But from here on out it's superstar-city anyway. Checkbook-busters all the way.
4. Ndamukong Suh
And given that, we might as well hit the mother of all checkbook-busters in 2015.
At least that's the case where Detroit Lions defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh is concerned, according to Field Yates of ESPN:
Suh won't come cheap, that much is for sure, especially if he can leverage offers from multiple teams against each other. Based on conversations with people familiar with NFL contract construction, it would not be a surprise to see Suh pursue a deal comparable to what defensive end/outside linebacker Mario Williams signed with the Bills back in 2012. That deal, six years in length, had a maximum value of $100 million with $50 million guaranteed. The guarantees of an NFL contract are what matter most, and Suh could well command $50 million in guarantees.
That's a lot of coin.
Many will argue that Suh is worth every penny, including at least one NFL personnel exec (per Yates):
Pretty simple. Brute strength. Rare explosive power. He rag-dolls blockers. He can physically win one-on-one versus anyone in the league. Also, he has some cross-face counter-wiggle to him that you usually don't see with a guy that big and powerful. Suh is a very rare entity: a disruptive, playmaking force as an interior pass-rusher.
Suh was Pro Football Focus' third-ranked defensive tackle in 2014. The 28-year-old hasn't ranked outside the top five in that regard since 2011.
Yes, Suh can occasionally be a pain in the posterior, but he spends a lot more time inflicting that pain on opponents.
And that ability is about to make Suh a very rich man.
OK, richer. As a player who was drafted under the old CBA, Suh's already made a pile of money.
Now it's time to add to that pile.
3. Demaryius Thomas
Over the past three seasons, you'd be hard-pressed to find a more productive wide receiver than Demaryius Thomas of the Denver Broncos.
In each of those years, Thomas has caught at least 90 passes, topped 1,400 receiving yards and scored double-digit touchdowns.
Now, the 27-year-old is about to reap the rewards of that productivity. However, it appears that free agency will be much ado about nothing for Thomas.
For starters, he told the NFL Network (via Arnie Stapleton of The Associated Press) back in December that he might be amenable to a "hometown discount" in Denver:
Of course, why not? Peyton is one of the best in the game, and I've been blessed to have him as my quarterback. I learned so much from him. Denver, of course I've got to take my hats off to them, because they took a chance of drafting me in the first round.
Even if extension talks stall, Mike Klis of The Denver Post fully expects the Broncos to tag Thomas if it comes to that. According to Klis, "The Broncos are expected to place an estimated $12.7 million franchise tag on Thomas, with plans of negotiating a multiyear contract extension before training camp."
So, while it might be fun to imagine Thomas catching passes from your favorite NFL team's quarterback, don't count on it unless that quarterback is Peyton Manning.
2. Justin Houston
According to Sam Mellinger of The Kansas City Star, the Kansas City Chiefs' "decision" where outside linebacker Justin Houston is concerned isn't really a decision at all.
You pay the 26-year-old. Whatever it takes:
Whatever he makes, in NFL terms he will be worth every cent. He is a rare talent and worker at a premier position who gives the Chiefs an advantage over every team but the Texans.As it stands, Houston just finished the kind of season that makes him a peer of some of the NFL's best pass rushers – now or ever. He broke Derrick Thomas' team record of 20 sacks, set in 1990, the year after Houston was born.The comparisons are too obvious to ignore, and Houston is actually a more complete player than Thomas. That sounds like amnesia, because Thomas is a Pro Football Hall of Famer. But it's true. He plays the run better, particularly in setting the edge and funneling backs into tacklers. He's also more versatile, with the skills to drop into coverage.That's a very different thing than saying Houston is better than Thomas, because he isn't. Thomas was like a factory of the spectacular, and even 15 years after his last game it's easy to remember his moments — strip-sacking Steve Young and John Elway, getting Dave Krieg seven times when he needed the eighth.Houston doesn't have that. Not yet, anyway. But he's not yet even 26 years old, and is just the 10th man with 20 or more sacks in a season since the stat became official in 1982. Five of the nine others are in the Hall of Fame. Three others are still playing, and may get there someday.He has more sacks (48 1/2) in his first four seasons than all but seven men, and this is an incredible list: Reggie White, Thomas, J.J. Watt, DeMarcus Ware, Dwight Freeney, Richard Dent and Von Miller.
In this instance, Mellinger is a hard man to argue with.
Over the past three seasons, Houston has tallied an eye-popping 43 sacks in 43 games. He was the top-graded 3-4 outside linebacker in the NFL last year by a staggering margin at Pro Football Focus.
And he's just now entering the prime of his career.
It's exceedingly rare for an NFL team to allow such a pass-rusher to even test the open market, much less actually leave. It's highly unlikely that the Chiefs will do so.
Not that that will stop 31 or so other NFL teams from hoping, mind you.
1. Dez Bryant
Never let it be said that there's no hope for headcases.
It wasn't that long ago that Dez Bryant would have been at or near the top of a list of wide receivers with million-dollar talents attached to a 10-cent head.
Now, Bryant sits atop the list of this year's players set to strike it rich.
Of course, that's what happens when you lead the NFL with 16 touchdowns while adding 88 catches for 1,320 yards—all while staying out of trouble off the field.
Bryant and Murray's big years have left the Cowboys in something of a pickle, though. Two superstar free agents. Likely enough money to pay only one.
It's been wisely speculated that if the Cowboys and Bryant can't come to an agreement, the franchise tag would be an option for the 26-year-old.
That could mean some drama in Big D, as Jon Machota of The Dallas Morning News reported back in November that Bryant (who recently switched agents) would be "highly disappointed" if he's tagged.
Still, odds are pretty good something will get worked out between Bryant and the Cowboys, and even if it doesn't...
I hear $13 million or so (the estimated franchise tag for wide receivers) does a lot to alleviate disappointment.
source: Bleacher Report
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